The last four years have taken Ventura County’s housing market down a bleak road, but some economic experts believe the long-awaited recovery is on the horizon.

Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast—a Santa Barbara-based company that prepares forecasts on the regional economies of the state— presented an in-depth look at the county’s housing landscape during the 10th annual Ventura County Housing Conference on Sept. 21.

According to Schniepp, Ven- tura County’s housing market “hit bottom” in 2007 and has been “bumping along the bottom” ever since.

Schniepp delivered a guarded forecast and stated that job creation beginning in the next few years will help revive the county’s housing market.

“We don’t see a double-dip recession,” Schniepp said. “We don’t think the housing market can go any lower. In fact, it’s the housing market that will gradually help to get us out of this mess.

“We’ll see a very gradual recovery of the labor markets— you may become convinced by 2013.”

Before 2007, Ventura County saw an average of about 2,800 new residential units being built each year—with a peak of 4,500 new units in 2005. But in the last four years the number of new residential units plummeted to less than 800 annually. And so far in 2011, only about 500 new units have been built in the county.

“We’re off by a significant amount,” Schniepp said. “That’s putting a lot of stress on the housing market— significant stress.”

Along with the decline in new housing development, new home sales have continued their downward spiral. More than 600 new homes were sold in Ventura County in the final quarter of 2005 compared to 30 in the same quarter of 2010.

But Schniepp said the local economy is beginning to show evidence of a slow rise across the board, which he thinks will ultimately lead to an increase in housing demand.

“There is job creation underway,” he said. “You just don’t notice it because there’s not enough.”

The port in Ventura County is “very busy” this year, hotel and motel occupancy is at a three- year high in 2011 and retail spending is “steadily and slowly rising,” Schniepp said.

Most experts remain cautious when it comes to talking recovery.

In the California/U.S. Forecast released this week by the California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting (CERF), executive director Bill Watkins said he expects California’s housing market to “continue to be depressed” through 2012.

“I expect the real estate market to be slow for the next few quarters, and after that it won’t be anything you would call a vigorous recovery,” Watkins told the Acorn.

Ventura County is doing much better than the state as a whole, he said.

“We’ve seen a little burst of job creation in the past couple months,” Watkins said. “ It’s probably not sustainable, but it’s good to see.”

Additionally, Ventura County is home to the Port Hueneme military base and companies such as Amgen, which provide stability to the local job markets, he said.

Developers lie in wait

According to Schniepp, Ventura County is home to more than 21,000 new residential units that have either been approved or almost approved by local municipalities.

The almost 11,000 new homes still waiting for permit approval lie mostly in Ventura and Oxnard.

There are 1,760 new homes waiting for approval in the East County, which includes Thousand Oaks, Moorpark, Camarillo and Simi Valley.

The pending projects include the Springfield Specific Plan in Camarillo, and Hitch Ranch and Pacific Communities in Moorpark.

Of the some 10,780 units that have been approved, almost 3,000 are in East County.

The approved projects— which are currently under construction or on hold due to market conditions—include the Highlands in Moorpark, and Runkle Canyon and the Casden development in Simi Valley.

Bas ed on informa t ion Schniepp gleaned from local developers, the projects currently on hold will likely restart construction in the next three years.

Population demographics could be the key to a ramp up in new home construction.

While the population in California continues to grow at a modest rate of about 1 percent each year, the number of adults in the state between the ages of 20 and 29 hit an all-time high this year of more than 5.7 million.

“ What do 20- somethings do?” Schniepp said. “One of the things they do is move out of the house with mom and dad and move into an apartment. This is what’s putting all the pressure on the apartment market—the multifamily market. And when they move out of and into apartments, that sort of pushes the apartment dwellers into firsttime home buying.”

Because of the current job landscape, the housing aspirations of the 20-somethings are being suppressed, Schniepp said.

“This is a problem that is exacerbated by the labor market phenomenon,” he said. “But it’s temporary. When that changes, the housing market changes.”

Once the economy bounces back and new jobs are created, the housing market could “come back with a vengeance,” the economist said.

With mortgage rates at an all time low, the average house payment in Ventura County stands at less than $1,800 a month.

“Affordability is extremely enhanced,” Schniepp said. “Affordability is not the problem and it won’t be the problem moving forward.”

Schniepp said that 2014 will “probably be a better year” for job growth, which will increase the county’s population growth and ultimately increase the demand for housing.

“ A lot of that demand is going to be from the 20-somethings,” he said. “As that population continues to peak, which will happen in about 2018 . . . multifamily production is going to take a big leap upward.”

Watkins has a different opinion.

“My feeling is that we see a boost in the young demographic— these are people enjoying California,” Watkins said. “But when it comes to settling down, starting a family and buying a home, large numbers of them leave the state.”