Slumping housing market affecting city's economy
Economist says home prices aren't expected to rebound until 2009
By Daniel Wolowicz camarillo@theacorn.com

A slumping housing market continues to hurt Camarillo's otherwise healthy economy, according to a recent report released by the University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project.

The city's annual economic report card was given by Bill Watkins, head of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project, during a luncheon last week hosted by the Camarillo Chamber of Commerce at Spanish Hills Country Club.

Watkins said housing market woes have overshadowed job growth, rising salaries and healthy consumer spending.

The economist told the 150 attendees the nationwide decline in home sales is "hammering California" and having an impact on Ventura County, as well as Camarillo.

According to Watkins, Ventura County home sales have plummeted in the past three years. In September 2005, 800 homes were sold in Ventura County. That number dropped to a little over 600 homes in 2006 and then dipped to 300 in 2007, the economist said.

"There's been a huge, huge falloff in the number of home sales," Watkins said. "In Camarillo, the falloff is even more pronounced."

Watkins said 30 homes in Camarillo were sold in September 2007, an 80 percent drop from the 150 homes sold during the same month last year.

Camarillo median home prices dropped from $625,600 in 2006 to $555,000 this year. Median home values are expected to drop again in 2008 to about $525,000, according to the report.

Watkins said it's difficult to predict when the Camarillo housing market is expected to fully recover from the current slump but said he doesn't anticipate a slight rise in home prices until 2009.

Bob Taylor, a Camarillo realtor with Keller Williams Realty, said the real estate downturn doesn't worry him and may help the local housing market gain stability.

"It's going to shake out a lot of the people that shouldn't be in the industry," said Taylor, who attended the luncheon. "It's going to take care of the bad mortgage companies that were giving bad loans."

Job cuts at two of the county's largest employers, Amgen and Countrywide, will affect Camarillo's housing market, Watkins said, but added he was unsure how much impact the layoffs will ultimately have on the city.

He said he expects those workers who have been laid off to sell homes, which, in turn, may further lower median home costs throughout Ventura County.

"You can't afford to live in Ventura County and be unemployed very long," Watkins said.

Regardless of a slow real estate market, Camarillo's gross city product in 2007 is $7.2 billion, up over 2 percent from last year. Watkins said the gross city product is expected to rise to $8.2 billion by 2009.

Watkins said the city's current population of 65,600 will grow at a steady pace over the next two years. The forecast predicts Camarillo's population numbers to reach 68,000 by 2009.

Camarillo's population increase is expected to outpace the county, which will grow 1 percent from 2007 and 2008 and 1.1 percent in 2009.

With 34 percent of the city's total jobs, durable goods and services are the largest employers in the private sector.

Although those two industries combined for a job loss of about 1 percent, total job growth in Camarillo continues to increase slightly with a less than a half percent increase in 2007 and an anticipated 1.1 percent rise next year.

Average salaries- which have shown a growth rate decline in the last four years- are expected to grow from $42,868 in 2007 to $44,348 next year.

"The decline in real median home prices combined with an increase in average salary will help make Camarillo a more affordable place to live," Watkins said.

Watkins said Camarillo accounts for nearly 8 percent of the county's total retail sales. The city is fifth out of 10 cities in the county. Thousand Oaks ranks number one with a quarter of the county's total retail dollars.

The city's taxable sales dollars rose slightly from 2006 to more than $876 million in 2007. The Camarillo Premium Outlets make apparel sales, which account for 21 percent of the city's total retail dollars, the largest source of taxable sales revenue for the city.