Dubroff discusses economic future of county
By Eliav Appelbaum eliav@theacorn.com

Ventura County will probably not feel a long-term economic backlash from the recent turmoil at Amgen, Inc. and Countrywide Financial Corp. according to Henry Dubroff, editor and founder of the Pacific Coast Business Times.

During Tuesday's speech at the Wedgewood Banquet Center in Ventura hosted by the Ventura County Taxpayers Association (VCTA), Dubroff talked about three points that are on the minds of business leaders and community members alike. The former business editor of the Denver Post and editor of the Denver Business Journal discussed Amgen, Countrywide and what he called a "capital conundrum" in the housing market. Amgen and Countrywide are the largest private employers in the county.

Earlier in the week, Amgen announced that 2,200 employees will lose their jobs, including approximately 675 in Thousand Oaks. Dubroff thinks Amgen will survive, and continue to prosper.

"If they haven't righted the ship then they've got it a lot back on course," Dubroff said.

Even though Amgen has created drugs that build up patients' red and whiteblood cell counts, the company has yet to discover a drug that actually treats a disease. If Amgen can create a drug designed specifically to fight an illness, then the company can rebound to its former glory. Either way, Dubroff said, the company should maintain some clout in the county.

Dubroff said Countrywide, which is based in Calabasas but has offices throughout Ventura County, suffered a massive hit during what he called a "wrinkle" in the exchange of billions of dollars on a daily and weekly basis. Countrywide, which also announced it will fire 12,000 employees, recently sold about $2 billion of convertible debt to Bank of America.

"Many people believe Bank of America will eventually own Countrywide. I'm not so sure," Dubroff said, "although it is the most likely outcome."

Dubroff also explained the "capital conundrum" to the audience.

"As home prices go up, and houses become less affordable, then banks are willing to lend," Dubroff said. "As prices go down and homes become more affordable, banks are less willing to lend. . . . I see things easing in time. I think the markets will settle down although the housing industry will be tough for a few years."

Dubroff's viewpoints were well received by the crowd.

"There's an overemphasis on the doom and gloom," said the association president Don Facciano. "The long-run is still good. We have some challenges ahead but Ventura County is a good place to live."